According to the latest report from Global Energy Monitor and its partners, global coal capacity increased by 2% in 2023. China was responsible for two-thirds of this growth, marking a significant contribution, while a slight increase was also noted in other parts of the world for the first time since 2019, as detailed in the annual survey of the global coal fleet.
The report highlights South Africa as a critical example due to its substantial dependence on coal, which makes up approximately 80% of its energy mix. The country’s older coal plants, many exceeding 40 years of age, present significant operational and financial challenges, leading to frequent breakdowns and interruptions in power supply.
It is most concerning that despite ongoing discussions and new commitments to phase out coal, the year 2023 saw the least amount of coal capacity retired in over a decade, indicating a slow progress in the global shift away from fossil fuels.
“Boom and Bust” is an annual survey by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) that provides an analysis of the global coal fleet, focusing on key trends in coal power capacity and its developmental stages, including planned retirements. The report draws on data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker, an essential international reference tool, to assess the status of the global phase-out of coal power and measure progress towards achieving global climate targets.
Key Points:
- Data Source and Reliability: The data for the report comes from GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker, a comprehensive online database updated biannually. This tracker is instrumental in mapping all known coal-fired generating units and new proposals since January 1, 2010, for units larger than 30 MW.
- Global Trends and Capacity Increases: The report highlights that global operating coal capacity grew by 2% in 2023, with a net increase of 48.4 GW — the highest since 2016 — despite 21.1 GW of coal power being retired. This resulted in a global total coal capacity of 2,130 GW.
- Regional Variations: While globally the capacity has increased, the report notes a significant geographic disparity. Additions in China have driven the recent surge in coal power capacity, contrasting with trends outside of China where more capacity has been retired than added until 2023.
- Capacity Additions and Retirements: The year saw 69.5 GW of new coal power commissioned and 21.1 GW retired, leading to a net annual increase of 48.4 GW. This was the largest net increase in capacity since 2016.
- Geographical Contributions: While China significantly boosted the global coal capacity, countries like Indonesia, India, and Vietnam also added new capacity. Conversely, the U.S. and Europe saw reduced retirements, contributing to the overall increase in coal capacity.
- Future Projections: Despite the growth in 2023, projections suggest this may be temporary. Increased retirements expected in the U.S. and Europe could reverse the recent trend. Moreover, if China adheres to its goal of closing 30 GW by 2025, the surge in coal capacity might be further mitigated.
- Implications for Climate Goals: The report cautions that the persistence of coal expansion poses risks to achieving the Paris Agreement targets. It emphasizes the need for accelerated retirement of existing coal plants and reconsideration of plans for new ones to ensure a swift transition to cleaner energy.
Future Outlook and Challenges: Despite some positive developments like 21 consecutive days without load-shedding as of April 2024, South Africa faces challenges with its coal fleet failing to meet energy availability targets. Plans for decommissioning coal plants are on hold, highlighting the ongoing dependence on coal and the challenges in transitioning to renewable energy.
